Predictive Aids and Mental Models under Free Flight: Proceed with Caution

This paper discusses the possible adverse effects predictive aid usage may have on a controller’s mental model in a Free Flight environment. Free Flight is a concept that is aimed at increasing throughput in the National Airspace System. However, various studies have suggested that implementing free flight could result in a controller’s situation model being adversely affected given the lack of predictability in this environment. Consequently, the usage of predictive aids has been suggested as a possible solution to this problem. However, there is a possibility that the usage of such aids may negatively affect a controller’s underlying mental model and thus, reduce his/her the ability to predict system behavior through mental simulations. Drawing on the results from two studies, we argue that caution must be exercised when introducing predictive aids under Free Flight conditions, given the possibility that such usage may adversely affect the controller’s underlying mental model, which can ultimately result in performance being compromised.